Credit, Growth and Resilience: Evidence from Floods in Pakistan (JMP)

Abstract

I examine how microcredit affects growth and resilience. While credit can fuel growth and investment, it may also exposes borrowers to heightened risk, making its effect on resilience ambiguous. Focusing on Pakistan’s SUCCESS program, I leverage a loan eligibility threshold to show that credit access boosted loan uptake from 1% to 46% among eligible households, spurring a 22% increase in livestock. Yet, this came at the cost of reduced investment in housing quality, leading to greater flood damage and displacements. Exploiting the spatial variation in the intensity of 2022 floods in Pakistan, I find that within highly-flooded villages, loan-eligible households have 24% fewer livestock, deteriorating mental health, and higher rates of loan default after the floods. In contrast, loan-eligible households within low-flooded villages, continue to accumulate livestock, with a gap emerging between loan-eligible households in high- and low-flooded villages over time. These results suggest that in settings with incomplete financial markets, credit access could induce a tradeoff between growth and resilience.